Christie's Deputy Chairman Dr. Dirk Boll: We are Entering “Another Golden Age for Contemporary Art”
January 10, 2024 Fanyu Lin for Financial Times (Chinese)
As 2023 concluded and we turned our gaze towards the new year, the art market continues to evolve in response to cultural, technological, and societal changes, shaped by key themes such as Generational Change, Digital Transformation, and a growing commitment to Equity, Diversity & Inclusion (E, D & I). I invited Professor Dr. Dirk Boll, Christie's Deputy Chairman of 20th and 21st Century Art, to share his insight about the main developments of the art markets we have been facing in the past few years.
Dirk Boll Portrait by Michael Kindermann
With a rich academic background in law and art management, Dirk has been a pivotal figure in the art industry since joining Christie's in 1998. His extensive experience, coupled with his roles in various management positions and as an educator, a lecturer at the University of Hamburg, positions him as a leading authority in this field. Dirk’s prolific contributions also include numerous publications, such as "Auctioneers who made Art History”, “What’s different this time? Economical Crisis and Art Market 1990/2001/2009/2020”, and his latest comprehensive handbook, "Art and Its Market," set to release in 2024.
In his talk and our conversation, Dirk provides a panoramic view of the art market's dynamics with new trends, challenges, and opportunities. Driven by the desire to fulfill the needs of collectors and artists, the art market acts as both an economic system and a distribution system. This market, constantly adapting to societal and technological shifts, stands as a testament to the enduring vitality and relevance of art in our time.
Art Market and Economic Cycles
We discussed how the art market intersects with and responds to broader economic trends, given the market's unique characteristics and the impact of economic cycles on different segments of the art world. Dirk notes the unique challenges faced by the top-end art market, primarily in supply, “I think the issue with the art market is that we are not producing what we are selling.” The influx of artworks into the market largely depends on estate sales, where artworks from significant collections, often accumulated post-war, re-enter the market due to various reasons — commonly referred to as the "three Ds": Death, Divorce, and Disaster.
This is the case since the 18th Century, and we continue to see major estate sales in recent years that have notably impacted the market and contributed the post-pandemic boom. A notable highlight was the sale of Andy Warhol's "Shot Sage Blue Marilyn" at Christie's auction in New York in May 2022, fetching an astounding $195 million, which is from the collection of the late Swiss art dealers Thomas and Doris Ammann. All the proceeds from the sales are used to benefit their foundation, dedicated to improving the lives of children worldwide. Moreover, the record-setting $1.62 billion turnover from the Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen’s estate sale at Christie’s New York in November 2022, along with significant sales at Sotheby’s such as the Macklowe Collection (2021-2022) and the Emily Fisher Landau Collection (2023), as well as the Triton Collection at Philips (2023), further exemplifies the substantial role of large estate sales in shaping the art market.
Andy Warhol (1928-1987), Shot Sage Blue Marilyn, 1964. Christie’s in New York
In Dirk’s words, "Big collection sales might take oxygen out of the market.” The impact of multi-billion-dollar estate sales on the broader art market is determinative. These influx of high-value sales not only overshadowed and limited the financial resources available for purchasing art from smaller, varied-owner sales, but also arguably affected the sales and visibility of other segments of the art market.
While the top-end market shows resilience, often unaffected by economic downturns due to the wealth of its buyers, the mid-market is more volatile. This segment, often associated with upper-middle and middle-class buyers, is more sensitive to economic cycles. Changes in the broader economy can significantly impact their buying behavior, leading to fluctuations in this market segment. Currently, there's a shift in spending habits with collectors dedicating a smaller budget to art, due to rising monetary costs and alternative investment options, as indicated by The Art Basel and UBS Survey of Global Collecting in 2023. This trend indicates a cautious approach by collectors, aligning their art investment strategies with the prevailing economic climate.
On the lower end however, the market remains relatively stable as it involves smaller, everyday luxury items. This sector is less affected by economic downturns and continues to see consistent transactions, albeit at lower price points. Overall, each market segment responds differently to economic trends, reflecting the varied demographic of art collectors and their respective financial resilience.
Generational Change and “Another Golden Age for Contemporary Art”
Another crucial area of focus for Dirk is the aspect of generational transition. As a multitude of estates enter the market, an intriguing question arises: Will the new generation continue to value and purchase the art selections made by their forebears? This isn't just about the direct preference for specific artworks, but also concerns the market value sustained by post-war collectors. How these evolving generational preferences impact the art market's pricing structure remains a significant consideration.
Of course, the act of collecting extends beyond the transactional nature of the market. It is a journey that intertwines personal taste, cultural influences, and societal values. Dirk’s observations on collecting fields reveal the diverse range of artworks that capture the attention of collectors. From traditional masterpieces to cutting-edge contemporary pieces, each contributes to the broader narrative of human expression.
“I think it could be another Golden Age for contemporary art.” In response to an audience query about the prospects for emerging artists, Dirk suggests we may be entering a new Golden Age for contemporary art. He emphasizes the essence of art's impact, stating, "Art's true power lies in its impact, not in how it's distributed. Artists should harness their unique artistic language to create a meaningful impact." This insight underlines the role of art in shaping society, and the significant opportunities that lie ahead for young artists seeking to make an impact in our time.
The contemporary art market is witnessing an unprecedented surge in interest, particularly for emerging artists. Analyzing this year's auction results reveals two distinct trends: established masterpieces commanding millions, and a burgeoning appetite for works by young, emerging artists. As Dirk puts it, “The wider collecting public seems to be interested like never before in what young artists have to say.” This shift is driven by collectors' desire for art that reflects the world they live in, and that reflects their own lives. The dramatic societal changes since 2020 have amplified this trend, increasingly favoring fresh, original voices over established norms from previous decades. Consequently, the current market offers a fertile ground for emerging artists, whose works, often less expensive, resonate with the evolving tastes and concerns of today's art enthusiasts. This dynamic synergy of affordability and relevance might be ushering in a new "Golden Age for Contemporary Art.”
In response to a more dynamic and interconnected world, there has been also a surge in the popularity of ultra-contemporary art. According to Dirk, “the so-called ultra-contemporary arts are works are really fresh from the studios coming to the secondary market within 24 months of their prime sale of the primary market.” This genre, often reflective of current affairs and digital culture, resonates with a younger, more diverse audience, indicating a shift in collector demographics and tastes.
Digital Transformation and Generative AI
The digital transformation of the art world signifies a monumental shift in how art is accessed, promoted, transacted, and created. This era is characterized by the proliferation of online platforms, social media, and virtual galleries, making art more accessible than ever before. However, this increased accessibility brings new challenges, particularly in the areas of algorithmic curation and artwork's authenticity and ownership. The art world's adaptation to these technological advancements will play a crucial role in shaping its future trajectory.
The use of Generative AI in artistic creation has opened new horizons and raised complex ethical questions. These developments blur the lines between traditional art forms and digital innovation, prompting the art industry to confront critical issues related to originality and intellectual property rights. Tools like Dall-E, Midjourney, and others have introduced an innovative dimension to art creation, challenging conventional ideas about creativity and copyright. These AI technologies, which translate language into images or videos, have ignited a debate about the essence of artistic creativity and the ownership of AI-generated artworks. While they offer fascinating avenues for artistic expression, they also raise intricate legal and ethical questions about the use of copyrighted materials for AI training and the determination of copyright for AI-generated works. The art market's response to these technological advancements is diverse. Some traditional agencies, such as Getty Images, approach AI-generated material with caution, while others like Shutterstock have embraced these new trends. This divergence reflects the broader industry's struggle to balance innovation with respect for established artistic rights.
The digital age, while introducing obstacles such as market adaptation and copyright concerns, has also ushered in opportunities for a new, tech-savvy generation. The fusion of gaming and metaverse experiences suggests a significant shift in how art is consumed and appreciated, especially among younger audiences who are increasingly immersed in digital environments.
As the art world navigates its digital transformation, a notable aspect of this evolution is the change in sales channels used by high net worth (HNW) collectors. The period between 2019 and 2021 witnessed a considerable shift in purchasing behaviors, largely influenced by the pandemic. In 2019, 32% of collectors acquired art from private sources through traditional methods involving personal interactions and direct negotiations. However, with the onset of social distancing and reduced social gatherings, this figure dropped to 27% in 2020 and further plummeted to 14% in 2021, signaling a decisive trend towards digitization in art sales.
During the pandemic, there was a notable increase in the use of online platforms for purchasing art. In 2020, a significant percentage of art transactions occurred through social media, with platforms like Instagram gaining prominence due to their visual-centric nature. This shift underscores the growing importance of digital mediums for art acquisition, challenging traditional sales approaches and emphasizing the necessity of an online presence for artists and galleries.
However, this shift towards digital channels is not without its challenges. Social media platforms, influenced by complex algorithms, can inadvertently create barriers for artists, as seen in phenomena like shadow banning, which can obscure artists' work from potential buyers. Moreover, the reliance on digital data for curating art offerings poses the risk of creating what Dirk called “the bottleneck of taste”. The art industry's reliance on historically limited and aging data could lead to a homogenized artistic landscape, driven by conservative computer algorithms, in stark contrast to the more diverse, rich, and real-time data available in sectors like retail. The art market's embrace of technology and digital transformation is reshaping how art is bought and sold. This transformation opens up new opportunities but also brings significant challenges that need to be addressed to ensure a diverse and vibrant art world.
Equity, Diversity & Inclusion (E, D & I) in the Art World
Over the past decade, the broader market and corporate sectors have noticeably shifted towards acknowledging and valuing a diverse range of stakeholders, aligning with the principles of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG). This shift reflects a growing awareness and integration of ESG considerations into core business strategies, influencing various industries, including the art market. This change steers the art market towards engagements that resonate with societal impact, Equity, Diversity & Inclusion (E, D & I) in particular. Institutions like Christie’s are spearheading this change, setting a precedent for other key players in the art world to follow.
Dirk’s analysis also acknowledges that these gaps is still imperative for a more inclusive art world that reflects the richness of diverse perspectives. As he showed, the initial surge in E, D & I initiatives in 2021 and 2022 was commendable, and there has been a notable increase in sales of works by female-identifying artists (+175%), Black American artists (+400%), and Black American female-identifying artists (+700%) from 2008 to 2021. However, a closer examination of global auction sales data reveals that despite significant percentage increases in sales of works by those marginalized artists groups, their overall representation in the market is still disproportionately low. For example, female-identifying artists account for only 3.3% of global auction sales, a stark reminder of the persisting gender gap in the art industry. Furthermore, when examining the intersection of race and gender, the representation becomes even more negligible. Black American female-identifying artists represent a mere 0.1% of global auction sales. This disparity exposes the systemic challenges and biases deeply ingrained in the art market.
In response, major players like Christie's have set comprehensive E, D & I objectives, focusing on various themes like socio-economic factors, LGBTQ+ representation, disability inclusion, and redefining the art narrative. These efforts demonstrate a growing awareness and commitment within the industry. However, the data indicates that while strides have been made, there's still a considerable journey ahead to bridge these disparities and create a truly inclusive and equitable art market.
Book “Art and Its Market” by Dirk Boll, 2024
As the art world continues to adapt and evolve in response to the pressing dialogues around Equity, Diversity & Inclusion, the transformative role of technology, and the resilience of the market amidst global changes, one thing remains certain – the transformative power of art to reflect, challenge, and inspire. The evolution of the art market not only acknowledges its broader societal impact but also highlights its potential to drive meaningful change. Professor Dr. Dirk Boll's upcoming book, "Art and Its Market," is eagerly anticipated for its comprehensive exploration of this dynamic field. This six-volume handbook, spanning over 400 pages, will offer insights into the art market's history, key players, economic and legal frameworks, collecting fields, supply mechanisms, and sales platforms. This work is poised to be an invaluable resource for understanding the complexities of the art world marked by technological innovation, diverse representation, and economic shifts as we progress into 2024.
